Gary Schmitt is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Reuel Marc Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Since we left, the protests have grown even more intense. On Tuesday, police used tear gas, water cannons and stun grenades against demonstrators. This only attracted more people to the streets, leading to frightening scenes Wednesday night:
Drone footage reveals the extent of protests against the Russian Law in Tbilisi #TbilisiProtests #Tbilisi #NoToRussianLaw #Georgia #RussianLaw #Georgians pic.twitter.com/uLxtUWGXTO
— Tabula Media (@Tabula_Media) May 2, 2024
🇬🇪 A massive turnout at #NoToRussianLaw protest after the brutal dispersal of peaceful protest. I couldn't fully record how many people are here. #Georgia pic.twitter.com/CxEYLa2Wbf
— Medea Ivaniadze (@medeaivan) May 1, 2024
In the past 24 hours, the protests have spread beyond the capital.
The protests against the Russia-inspired foreign agents bill is now nationwide.
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) May 1, 2024
The demonstration is taking place in the Black Sea city of Batumi - third largest city in Georgia. pic.twitter.com/MLj95NXDYI
Police appear to have used rubber bullets against protesters. And although the Ministry of Internal Affairs denies the charge, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty confirmed their use. Pictures of the wounded are all over Georgian social media.
🔴 During the demonstrations, the protester found a rubber bullet shot by the riot police
— Tabula Media (@Tabula_Media) May 2, 2024
He got shot from a 5-meter distance, but he managed to dodge it#Georgia #Tbilisi #TbilisiProtests #NoToRussianLaw #RussianLaw pic.twitter.com/HgLgPj6nkT
People were hit by bullets, one person was shot in the eye. Water shred, gas, they do everything to protect the Russian government. It's a catastrophe.
— Mariam Geguchadze (@mariamgegu) May 1, 2024
We are still standing. #HAPPENINGNOW #Georgia pic.twitter.com/iycuSzp2e7
Tamara Chergoleishvili, founder of the independent news site Tabula and a veteran of Georgia’s democratic opposition, said she had never seen so many people in the streets.
The size and scope of the protests are a testament to how terrible the proposed law is. It requires all people and entities that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from outside Georgia to register as foreign agents — even if they are not acting on behalf of a foreign country. It would allow the government to closely monitor all the organizations it covers: religious, academic, humanitarian and civic groups, as well as media, watchdog and election-monitoring groups. Any that refuse to register would face hefty fines designed to drive them out of business or into exile.
The goal is to stop the country’s integration with the West and accept Russian ascendancy over its foreign and domestic policies.
"We'll never be part of Russia again, but we need your help to ensure that we never go back there."
— GAMZIRI24 (@GAMZIRI24) May 1, 2024
Tbilisi Protesters #NoToRussianLaw
Follow @GAMZIRI24
🇬🇪🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/P8f1dAE5cy
Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who is the de facto head of the ruling Georgian Dream party, has long talked about wanting to develop ties with Western countries but continually uses the threat that Russia poses to Georgia as grounds to reorient the country toward Moscow and Beijing. Earlier this week, in an inflammatory speech to his supporters that has further catalyzed the protests, he called foreign assistance from the West a conspiracy of the “Global War Party” designed to take away Georgia’s independence.
Watch Ivanishvili blaming the „Global War Party“, which has influence over @NATO & #EU🇪🇺, in confronting #Georgia with #Russia in 2008. All his speech was about the West planning a revolution in Georgia to seize power & appoint its agents to rule. pic.twitter.com/mFGlynOCcI
— Natia Mezvrishvili (@N_mezvrishvili) April 29, 2024
Under his government, corruption in Georgia has skyrocketed, the economy has flatlined and his cronies have taken control of the ministries. Independent media have been virtually squeezed out of existence — even as the European Union and United States continue to send millions in foreign assistance to Tbilisi.
Georgian Dream 1) Accused USAID of preparing activists to overthrow the government 2) accused the US of wanting a second front in Georgia 3) Accused US partners having no arguments against Russian law, meanwhile they refuse to meet with the US officials to discuss the assistance. https://t.co/i49y8aFITS
— Katie Shoshiashvili (@KShoshiashvili) May 2, 2024
Laundering Russian money has become a national pastime. The Georgian-Russian border is wide open. At the border, we saw endless lines of trucks crossing daily. We saw new Ferraris, Porsches and Mercedes AMG SUVs going across, ignoring the West’s sanctions regime against Russia. We saw Chinese crews blasting tunnels for a new highway connecting Georgia to Russia; when it’s finished, semis (or armored vehicles) will be able to move much more rapidly through the steep mountains and deep valleys.
Ivanishvili’s strategy since Georgia Dream won control of the government in 2012 has been one of “boiling the frog” — killing the political opposition slowly. With the party’s newly asserted control over the Central Election Commission, it appears that the decision to advance the foreign-agent law now, despite its unpopularity, is intended to put an institutional lid on a boiling pot before the elections in October. It’s a very good guess that Ivanishvili — and Vladimir Putin — want no more ballot-box surprises.
The scale of the protests suggest that Georgians believe this is a make-or-break moment for their democracy. They worry that protests alone, or further talks with Washington or Brussels, will not make the government back down. Instead, they are looking for tangible support from the West that threatens real pain to Ivanishvili, his top aides and the Georgian parliamentarians who vote in favor of the law.
Sanctions to Bidzina Ivanishvili! [Russian oligarch]
— Lucas Ablotia (@AblotiaLucas) April 25, 2024
Ivanishvili's Georgia is:
Another Russian [Putin] regime in Eastern Europe.
This regime in Georgia threatens the security of #EU!
Help us:
Sanction the Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili! pic.twitter.com/FS9LHp34rS
Officials in Europe and Washington have been saying the right things, but they need to also impose sanctions, as the Georgian opposition has been pleading for. Then, at least most Georgians will know the United States and Europe are on their side.