Critics and commentators raised questions over what looked like Washington’s discernible disregard for peace in South Asia after the US vice president observed that the war between Pakistan and India was “fundamentally none of our business” – till it somehow did become their business the very next day.
Amid global calls for de-escalation, it was natural to expect that rising hostilities between the nuclear-armed Pakistan and India would concern the international community.
But despite Pakistan protesting India’s escalated aggression, as India unrestrictedly struck nine targets in Pakistan after midnight on 7 May, followed by relentless drone attacks during the day, out of which at least 77 drones were detected and neutralised, tangible efforts by the US to broker a ceasefire appeared elusive.
Pakistan had downed five of India’s jets in counter attacks during this operation, but India denied the claim. There were casualties on the ground on both sides; 31 in Pakistan, with around 35 injured, while Indian jets had to ‘shelve’ and disengage following the highly destructive face-off with Pakistan’s Chinese-made aircraft.
Earlier, before India had displayed any military aggression, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had urged Washington to press India to “dial down the rhetoric and act responsibly”, following the multiple punitive measures that India had taken after the Pahalgam massacre of 22 April. Most contemptible among the steps was one to weaponise the shared water resources, when India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
While encountering continued military hostility from India and having practiced restraint, Pakistan had to decide that enough was enough, the moment three of its air bases were assaulted by India using surface-to-air missiles.
In the wee hours of 10 May, immediately after the morning prayer, Pakistan stunned a raucous India into silence and submission with a reverberating, retaliatory military offensive that targeted 26 sites, air bases and military headquarters across India, some of them linked to terrorism and attacking sites in Pakistan.
By Saturday afternoon, amid such continuing high tensions between the two neighbours, in an unexpected development, President Donald Trump broke the news on social media of having managed to mediate a ‘ceasefire’ between Pakistan and India, a move also called “the surprise truce” by CNN.
Though a very welcome development, how did the US administration transition from what was not its ‘business’ to it becoming its business within a matter of hours? In fact, what had lapsed between the two US stances was not only going to change Trump’s mind, but also the course of global electronic warfare supremacy for times to come.
Perhaps the US was not expecting that India would be battered so badly in a standoff with Pakistan, but when it did happen, the US administration had to act quickly and prudently to rescue an old ally and Pakistan’s rival, amid reports of India also having asked the US to facilitate a ceasefire between the two countries.
Bailing India out of what could have been a sure kill was also imperative in order to prevent the further rise of a US rival that had already caused, only a few hours ago, quite a stir in the global warfare industry: China.
The combined impact of China’s J10C and JF-17 jets with PL-15 missiles had not only ensured an overwhelming victory for Pakistan over India’s combat aircraft as they locked up in a fierce dogfight, but had also guaranteed a welcome opening for the Chinese warfare industry.
But more such victories for Pakistan could not have been afforded; not only by India but also by the US, since the latter wouldn’t allow the world to witness any further demonstrations that would validate the superiority and potential of China’s weaponry. This, after all, had been a domain that had always been the West’s prerogative.
The US, as the leading exporter of weapons, holds a market share of over 40% in international arms sales. During the fiscal year 2024, US arms sales reached a record $318.7 billion. Helping maintain US political hegemony, the arms industry has a very strong lobbying presence that helps it influence world’s defence policies, besides expanding weapons sales, a role that cannot be surrendered to a rival.
For the US, China is perhaps the only real rival that it has had, since the Soviet Union was only an adversary, being relatively economically weak and with limited global engagement
But China's military buildup, increasingly assertive conduct, and efforts to modernise its defence capabilities are seen as a significant challenge to the US military dominance. The US economy thrives on providing combat-tech, armaments and artillery to its allies within war zones, like Israel and Ukraine, equally nurturing the war industry in order to safeguard long-term gains.
With China having proven its dominance in active combat on 10 May, as PAF’s Chinese jets pounded India’s Rafales and Mirage 2000s, the US could not have allowed the world to livestream more of such real-time testimonials of prowess, precision and trailblazing bling signifying Chinese warfare equipment and its cutting-edge brilliance.
The long-term consequence of prolonged military aggression in South Asia in light of the Trump tariffs and how they have already upended global economic and trade balances, might have also raised more problems for the US and its dreaded recession.
For the US, China is perhaps the only real rival that it has had, since the Soviet Union was only an adversary, being relatively economically weak and with limited global engagement. China, on the other hand, is an economic powerhouse and extensively engaged globally. The US rivalry with China is essentially two-tiered; one aimed at maintaining America’s technological and military superiority, the other at ensuring a level playing field in economic competition.
The new world order has not quite yet emerged. We are in a transitional phase that affects and is affected by the US-China rivalry, as the scramble to stake an advantageous position in the coming world order can cause global turbulence. Had this conflict escalated, with China backing Pakistan and the US behind India, this might have led to great power conflict, with US and China facing each other in a proxy war.
Washington is worried by China’s deepening economic inroads globally and its assertive military posture in the region. China has an edge in geo-economics, the US in geopolitics and military power, and there is no way the US would want China to become a threat to its supremacy in military might. The expected military use of Gwadar by Beijing may also equip China to undermine vital US geopolitical interests in the region.
There was a palpable fear that the India-Pakistan face-off will take the world focus away from Gaza, providing Israel with further flagrance to continue the grotesque genocide of Palestinians. The Trump administration has expressed the desire to facilitate talks on the Kashmir issue and we might see more serious efforts from the US to address the stand-off at this point, where it is imperative to keep Chinese weapons of warfare from soaring further; in the skies and the global markets.